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Oil & lubricants, transportation, petrochemicals, pesticides and insecticides, paints, perfumes, etc. are largely and directly affected by the oil prices. The prices of crude are highly volatile. High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases input costs; reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries.

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Because foreign exchange markets are efficient, in the short run, the mere expectation of changes in relative inflation, exports, imports, trade barriers, and productivity moves the markets. Also in the short run, differences in interest rates and expectations of the future exchange rate play key roles in exchange rate determination. In the very short run exchange rates are determined by uncovered interest parity, i.e. the condition that the returns on deposits in different currencies must be equal when expressed in a common currency (foreign exchange market equilibrium condition). We have also seen that short run interest rates are determined by the equality of the demand… Exchange Rates in the Short Run F What determines exchange rates in the short-run? » Exchange rates are priced like financial assets » Asset prices change quickly, often by more than contemporaneous changes in underlying determinants » Markets are forward looking, react to what is expected F The asset market approach to exchange rates